Public Opinion and policy Essay

In human beings discernment Democratic Ideals, Democratic Practice, Rosalee Clawson and Zoe Oxley project universe discernment as an undivideds article of beliefs and preferences in regards to entirely governmental matters and policies.(424) These individualististic intellects collectively be quite a littleed as the boilersuit existences opinions summarized and keister be reflected by a poll. By collecting these opinions through the polling process, lawgivers argon app arent to take these opinions into consideration when creating and/or regulating a policy. In 1824 The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian newspaper conducted whiz such poll where the readers were asked to return a postcard with their opinion slightly the presidential johndidates Andrew Jackson or washbowl Quincy Adams. Jackson won the poll as salutary as the flushtual(prenominal) choice.(Franklin) This style of opinion polling has increased over the years and evolved into a more than(prenominal) refine d and true representation of the world. For instance, instead of stack a chargeting an untrace equal, anonymous postcard, volume atomic get 18 instead asked to submit a survey and are required to submit some someoneal education, which exit remain anonymous, in order to bar the chance of someone submitting more than one survey.Due to the availability of the call ins and the internet, we are capable to survey a extensiver and more diverse convocation of citizens which exit allow for more accurate results. As voters, we are able to have some control over who represents our opinions as well as who we believe will make decisions that are truly for the betterment of the plenty and society. By understanding the five linkage works established by Norman Luttbeg (Robert & deoxyadenosine monophosphate Kent, 20-21) we are able to see how unre rigoroused opinion bottomland s elan the formulation of a macrocosm policy.1. The Rational-Activist deterrent ex adeninele assumes tha t all voting citizens are level-headed, informed, involved and policy-makingly active individuals. This stumper presents the idea that if representatives do non make decisions to satisfy the demands of the plurality, then the heap will flip that representative. This molding is the least possible to be apparent since the majority of the public does not musical accompaniment close tabs on political actions. The largest flaw with this mystify is that we are assuming all voters are educated and rational about a particular issue and/or disregarddidate.2. The Political Parties Model takes blank space when an individual has an boilersuit agreement with the ideals of an individual troupe. Citizens invest with a companionship whose overall attitude and beliefs mesh with their own. A major flaw inwardly this model is the idea that representatives feel pressured to take actions that are for the betterment of the troupe scarcely not always for the individual citizen.3. Th e Interest Groups Model establishes that the public grass express their opinions to lawmakers by forming a conference who will power for a collective cause. The chemical groups trust pressure on the lawmakers and parties electo sit by collect behind those that will publicly promote them. As well as monetarily by donating funds to those individuals and/or parties. By understanding this particular model we are able to see the likelihood of one group cosmos more represented than anformer(a) in society. This would create battle among the pile as the group who is the least wealthy would be more likely to be underrepresented even though that group could contain a more accurate representation of the overall public opinion.4. The Delegate Model maintains that a representative is elected ground on the candidates values but not necessarily their stance on the issues. This model varies from the Rational Activist model in that it tapers more responsibility on the candidate to follow the opinions of the constituency or face being replaced and not place the responsibility on the public to educate themselves. composition the Delegate Model and the Rational Activist Model are very similar the key difference is in noting that this model places more pressure on a candidate to follow their constituencys ideas even if the candidate believes that other options would be in the best reside of the constituents.5. The Sharing Model speaks on the idea that a representative will act on their own belief that whitethorn not be in complete alignment with their constituency but out-of-pocket to the unlikelihood that the lawmaker will go directly against their constituency they are remedy placing public opinion in their favor. This model overwhelmingly displays that a representatives values and character whitethorn come more into consideration with a voter than that representatives stance on a particular issue. (WK 2008) When we say existence we are referring to a large mass of people that represent the summation of a geographical area. (Robert & antiophthalmic factor Kent, 28) Population can be that of a country, state, city or even a university leading to extremely large groups of people that would take in any case much time to poll individually.Within any given population we take s angstrom unitles, collect data from a subdivision of a population in an effort to estimate the overall opinions of the collective group. Within these subsets of populations the results may not be a completely accurate reflection of the overall population. Religion, race and income are factors that can greatly sway the outcome but nigh instances are unintentional. (US History) A biased sample is where there has been a methodical selection of the participants in an effort to achieve a think outcome. An unintentional occurrence might take place with a speech sound sampling. The University of Texas at Austin elaborated on this bias in regards to telephone sampling. F or instance, if the amount of people who are without phones, or those who simply dont answer the phone are not considered this can greatly skewed the results. Truly random samplings are where the participants are participating solely due to chance and where every varying subset of citizens has an equal chance to be selected. (Rosalee & Zoe, 29-30) A sample will very rarely get the accept percentages as it is mettlesomely likely that they will miss a group of people since the entire population is not participating and we are pickings smaller groups to represent the entirety.The confidence level is a mathematical opportunity measure that tells us how reliable our data is in terms of accuracy. We keep this probability to a manageable number by keeping the number of individuals polled low. Polls are kept to less than 1,000 replyents due to the margin of misconduct as well as the fact that the accuracy improves only marginally with larger samples. (Robert & Kent 30) The 1936 poll conducted by Literacy Digest proclaimed that the republican candidate was likely to be the overwhelming winner of the chairial election when in actuality it was Franklin Delano Roosevelt that won the bid for President. Seeing as how this poll was conducted at a time where the majority of people were dealing with the aftermath of the line of descent market crash and the subsequent great depression we can guess that the majority of the people polled were people who had the funds to subscribe to a weekly magazine, owned a telephone and possibly an automobile. The republican candidate was project to be the winner most likely due to the affluent republican participants of the survey. During this same election George Gallups American Institute of frequent vox populi did project the winner to be Franklin Delano Roosevelt, which placed the Gallup poll into the spotlight. It is believed that the Gallup poll was able to accurately predict the outcome due to their preference of usin g a smaller and more diverse sample. (Polling the Nations)Ideologies are the beliefs of an individual about the non-homogeneous social, cultural, political and economic operations within a society. An individual forms opinions found on their beliefs, life experience, genetics and many factors that as a totally make up their political political orientation. (Rosalee & Zoe, p62) The liberal ideology is based on the beliefs that government intervention in economic matters, as well as a basic belief in the equality of the people. While a conservatives ideology is based on the beliefs that there should be marginal government intervention in all matters, as well as an emphasis on tradition and individual responsibility. (Robert & Kent, p72-73)There are five main influences that will affect how a person waxs their ideology family, gender, religion, ethnicity, and/or region. All of these influences will combine, influencing the opinions and beliefs of the citizen. Since a person develops opinions based on the experiences and knowledge they have developed over the course of their lives, there can be instances where a person can completely flip-flop on their original ideals as time progresses and while this is highly unlikely it is still possible.( Pelin, Erik, Jackie) For instance, a person who grew up in an affluential conservative household may find as they get older and more independent that their view of the world is massively varied from that of their families. This can also lead to bout amongst families in instances where there is an obvious divide on the ideals. A person who is witness to the exchange of ideas between the opposing sides is likely to be influenced by the attitudes and opinions of the people while also comparing those individuals ideals to their behaviors, character, and reliability.Conservatives and Liberals have very different ideological stand battery-acids and many Americans tend to lean towards one or the other in regards to th eir personal beliefs toward public policy making and governing styles. However, it has been spy that the majority of the present American public do not identify themselves as adhering to one stringent ideology but instead place themselves somewhere in the middle. (Robert & Kent, p83) Conservatives have the highest percentage of individuals who are strict ideologues. (Gallup-a) But there are many individuals from either side that can be uncompromising in their ideals and take their truth as the one and only truth.In understanding a persons elect ideology we are faced with an interesting fact that while most people tend to identify themselves as conservative, the overall majority of the public tends to vote more liberally. ( rear end, 2014) Conservatives are ideologically defined by their strict adherence to traditional values and practices as well as their take for little to no governmental regulation and their emphasis on individual citizens taking personal responsibility. Liberals are alternatively defined by their belief that the government should be active in the regulation of the people in order to protect the citizens from the possibility of unequal and discriminatory actions. (Rosalee & Zoe, p134) Liberals are also recognized by their beliefs in the overall equality of citizens, security department of liberties and progressive thinking that is based on the idea that there is overall an essential goodness to the mass populous. While there are vast differences between these opposing sides, it is possible to see how a person may agree with a conservative view of government while simultaneously believing in the humanist attributes of the liberal view.Individuals will usually develop an allegiance to a particular party (typically Democrat or Republican, though many other political parties have emerged), or will reason themselves as being an independent of a specific party affiliation. An individuals party identification gives us a better idea o n how that person will vote in elections as people tend to follow their elected partys specific views on an issue as well as electorally support a political leader of the party, but that is not always the case. Party identification has been expound as being a psychological identification, or being the way an individual has come to their current attitudes towards public policy by way of their individual life experience, that will continue to influence how new information is processed. (Thomas & Geoffrey)If we were to question an individuals likelihood to remain a steady voter for one particular party, the Michigan Model system will give us such a theory to go on as this model emphasizes an individuals party adhesion is predominately stable. One noticeable flaw in this theory is if a party were to change their stance on an issue that overwhelmingly goes against the beliefs or ideals of the individual, the voter may then vote against the party if not possibly tack on parties altogether. But this is unlikely as the voter is more likely to respond to the performances of their elected representatives than to their ideologies alone. (Harold, David, Marianne & capital of Minnesota)By looking at the present day Republican Party we are able to see they are typically very conservative in their views, which may be why more and more religious people vote in accordance with this party. The Republican party favors towards older, affluent and white males while the Democratic party tends to be more diverse. The Democratic Party contains a very diverse group of people and is weighted in the areas of women, race and sexual orientation. (Gallup-b) The majority of younger Americans also identifies with the Democratic Party. By seeing the makeup of these parties we can deduct that it is likely the Democrats are representative of a new school undulation that is pushing for a more liberalistic approach. (Adam, 2014)The presidential panegyric evaluate is one of the main political opinion polls taken and rivet on by the media. This ranking shows whether the public generally approves or disapproves of the trading performance of the person holding Americas highest bunk. In studying the inconsistent falls and climbs of the approval military rating there have been accepted trends believed to be the cause of some high points during a presidential term. (Rosalee & Zoe, 109) The honeymoon effect is the first trend that will take place during the days after a President takes office. This effect refers to the initial stagecoach after the swearing in of the president into the office. Since this man is entering office with a clean sheet, and has recently come off of an approval high as evidenced by his election, people are more likely to be optimistic towards actions taken by the president. Eventually there will come a time where a problem is encountered and the presidents plan of action will no doubtedly upset a caboodle of people. After this po int there can be varying reasons for the periodical rising and falling of the approval rating. (Robert & Kent, 120)In some instances a presidents rating can climb when the nation has been confronted with a foreign import that involves America and possibly a crisis for the American people. This idea is referred to as the rally round the flag effect. Robert Erikson and Kent Tedin write in American Public Opinion (121) this effect is likely to occur due to the desire of the American people to feel united behind a leader. One of the most accurate examples of this would be the attitude of the American people after the attacks that took place on 9/11 and the subsequent skyrocketing in the approval ratings for President George W. Bush. Upon deeper military rating of this occurrence when there is more of a relative calming of the people and the effects of war, both financially as well as the casualties incurred, the approval ratings are then subject to drop, one could say when reality sets in. (Rosalee & Zoe, 111)The final source for the possible explanations behind drastic increases and decreases in a presidential approval rating is the state of the economy. An economy that is poorly acting will likely result in low approval ratings for the President and a prosperous economy to increase the approval rating. According to Kevin hoover in his article Phillips Curve, during a low economic point there will be higher rates of unemployment and inflation. These two factors can have a substantial and negative impact on an individuals livelihood. President Obama was elected during a time of economic strife due to many factors including a housing market crash as well as the weighing cost of the War on timidity. Even though Obama was not in the Presidential office during the intrusion of the war, nor was he to blame for the inevitable housing market crash, his approval rating suffered due to the onset of these events aftereffects.BibliographyRobert S. Erikson and Ken t L. Tedin, American Public Opinion, New Jersey Pearson Education, Inc., 2011 Rosalee A. Clawson and Zoe M. Oxley, Public Opinion Democratic Ideals, Democratic Practice. Washington D.C., 2013 The University of Texas at Austin. Biased ingest and Extrapolation. 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